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READ PDF Þ Tư Duy Nhanh Và Chậm ß Ch ng ta th ng t cho r ng con ng i l sinh v t c l tr m nh m , khi quy t nh hay nh gi v n lu n k l ng v l t nh Nh ng s th t l , d b n c c n tr ng t i m c n o, th trong cu c s ng h ng ng y hay trong v n li n quan n kinh t , b n v n c nh ng quy t nh d a tr n c m t nh ch quan c a m nh Thinking fast and slow, cu n s ch n i ti ng t ng h p t t c nghi n c u c ti n h nh qua nhi u th p k c a nh t m l h c t ng t gi i Nobel Kinh t Daniel Kahneman s cho b n th y nh ng s h p l v phi l trong t duy c a ch nh b n Cu n s ch c nh gi l ki t t c trong vi c thay i h nh vi c a con ng i, Thinking fast and slow d nh c v s gi i th ng danh gi , l t v o Topcu n s ch kinh doanh h p d n nh t n mAlpha Books mua b n quy n v s xu t b n cu n s ch trong Qun m nay Thinking fast and slow d l cu n s ch c t nh h n l m cao nh ng v c ng b ch v i t t c m i ng i v c bi t r t d hi u v vui nh n c r t nhi u cu n s ch n i v t nh h p l v phi l c a con ng i trong t duy, trong vi c nh gi v ra quy t nh, nh ng Thinking fast and slow c T p ch T i ch nh M nh gi l ki t t cB n ngh r ng b n t duy nhanh, hay ch m B n t duy v suy ngh theo l i tr ng m t b t h nh dong , nh gi m i v t nhanh ch ng b ng c m quan, quy t nh d a theo c m x c hay t duy m t c ch c n th n, ch m r i nh ng logic h p l v m t v n Thinking fast and slow s a ra v l gi i hai h th ng t duy t c ng n con ng nh n th c c a b n Kahneman g i l h th ngv h th ngH th ng , c n g i l c ch ngh nhanh, t ng, th ng xuy n c s d ng, c m t nh, r p khu n v ti m th c H th ng , c n g i l c ch ngh ch m, i h i t n l c, t c s d ng, d ng logic c t nh to n v th c Trong m t lo t th nghi m t m l mang t nh ti n phong, Kahneman v Tversky ch ng minh r ng, con ng i ch ng ta th ng i n quy t nh theo c ch ngh nhanh h n l gh ch m Ph n l n n i dung c a cu n s ch ch ra nh ng sai l m c a con ng i khi suy ngh theo h th ngKahneman ch ng minh r ng ch ng ta t h n nh ng g ch ng ta t ng l ch ng ta kh ng bi t nh ng g ch ng ta kh ng bi t Cu n s ch c bi t d nh c v s gi i th ng danh gi S ch khoa h c hay nh t c a H c vi n Khoa h c Qu c gia n m , c t p ch The New York Times b nh ch n l s ch hay nh t n m , m t trong nh ng cu n s ch kinh t xu t s c n m , chi n th ng gi i th ng cu n s ch c quan t m nh t n mc a t p ch Los Algeles Thinking fast and slow p ng hai ti u ch c a m t cu n s ch hay, th nh t n th ch th c quan i m c a ng i c, th hai, n kh ng ph i l nh ng trang s ch v i nh ng con ch kh c ng m n v c ng vui nh n v h p d n Kh ng nghi ng g n a, y l cu n s ch h n l m d nh cho t t c m i ng i This book had me laughing and smiling,than many a book described in its blurb as side splittingly funny or something similar because I recognised the cognitive disillusions described in this book as my own and in any case I am the kind of person who if they fall into a good mood wonders if it s due to the pint and the pie that was eaten earlier.In my case the preacher wasn t talking to the choir, but I had been to the church before and enjoyed the services It doesn t set out to be a new b This book had me laughing and smiling,than many a book described in its blurb as side splittingly funny or something similar because I recognised the cognitive disillusions described in this book as my own and in any case I am the kind of person who if they fall into a good mood wonders if it s due to the pint and the pie that was eaten earlier.In my case the preacher wasn t talking to the choir, but I had been to the church before and enjoyed the services It doesn t set out to be a new book full of new discoveries It s a comfortable round up of research, investigations and thought, polished off with a couple of Kahneman s early articles as appendices If you ve read The Halo Effect and the Eight Other Business Delusions That Deceive Managers which puts some of these cogitative delusions in a business context, it has an excellent anecdote about the failure of a Lego product , or something along those lines you ll be familiar with some of the ideas here.By now I m quite comfortable accepting that I am not rational and that other people aren t either and that statistical thinking is alien to probably to almost everybody and Kahneman s book happily confirms my opinion And few things make us as happy as having our own biases confirmed to us.There are however a couple of problems Firstly there are some people who apparently are wedded to the notion that people are entirely rational They either will not read this book, read and reject it or indeed read it, accept it s findings but mentally note them as curious aberrations that don t affect their belief this is discussed in the book.More seriously society is organised on the tacit assumption that we are not only capable of being rational but will put the effort into doing so when required Unfortunately studies demonstrating the effect of meals on Judges reviewing parole cases like the state pawn broker in Down and out in Paris and London they arelenient after lunch and harsher beforehand and once they get hungry again or voter behaviour which turns out to be influenced by where the polling booth is located This makes me wonder My polling station used to be in the Adult Education Centre, now that s been closed down, if the polling centre was moved to the police station would my voting habits transform into those of a Fishin , Huntin and Floggin Tory who froths at the mouth hearing the words illegal immigrants Maybe I need a snack Much in the book is useful, 90% fat free does sound better than 10% fat, there s a lot to be learnt here in how to describe or state a problem to push people towards certain responses by framing or anchoring the information you give Of course this happens to us all the time as it is One of my favourite of Kahneman s examples comes from when he was working with Israeli flight instructors They were convinced that shouting and swearing at trainee pilots was the best method of improving their performance experience proved it when a pilot under performed they swore at him and on the next attempt the trainee would do better Plainly shouting works Kahneman, perhaps with a sigh, said this was simply regression to the mean After poor performance what ever they did would be followed by improved performance, swearing and shouting have no magic power To demonstrate he had the instructors throw balls of paper over their shoulder s into a waste paper bin and tracked the results on a handy black board showing that performance varied up and down irrespective of swearing Still I wonder if returning to work the instructors developed an enlightened instruction method or if they rapidly regressed to the mean and shouted and swore again.I used to think that politicians answered a different question to the one given by the interviewer in an attempt to be evasive Post Kahneman I wonder if this is just the natural tendency of the brain to substitute an easier question for a harder one Who knows In the last few years two books took me FOREVER to get through The first was Daniel Dennett s Darwin s Dangerous Idea and the second is Kahneman s Thinking, Fast and Slow What caused this What do they have in common Both books explain, in minute detail, simple concepts with immensely far reaching implications, and both have been after the slog the most intellectually rewarding reading of my adult life Where to begin I have a number of theories running around in my head, and occ In the last few years two books took me FOREVER to get through The first was Daniel Dennett s Darwin s Dangerous Idea and the second is Kahneman s Thinking, Fast and Slow What caused this What do they have in common Both books explain, in minute detail, simple concepts with immensely far reaching implications, and both have been after the slog the most intellectually rewarding reading of my adult life Where to begin I have a number of theories running around in my head, and occasionally I try to corral them on paper I organize, sequence and interconnect them in a way that will prevent my reader from meaningfully widening their eyes, in an aside, while winding their finger around one ear Cuckoo Good writing about complex topics is very, very difficult, and Kahneman has corraled 30 years of science, his career and all he has learned into a perfectly arranged sequence that leads the reader into a wilderness provisioning you in each chapter with the tools you ll need for the next part of the journey.The second most striking effect on me is the number of times I said, Yes YES this is what I ve been saying In my case it has usually been some sort of intuitive excuse me, Mr Kahneman I mean System 1 recognition of a pattern in my observations about the way we think In Kahneman s case those intuitions have been converted into theoretical propositions, each meticulously researched in well designed experiments Clearly, this is at least one difference between me and a Nobel Prize winning researcher.So why does this stuff matter In the context of broader discussions of free will, intention, choice and control over the directions our lives take, this book can provide powerful insights that might currently be obscured by these cognitive illusions and the inherent limitations of System 1 System 2 thinking Perhaps we re not as free in our decisions as we might like to think, if priming has such a stunningly reproducible effect Perhaps we re not so determined, if activities that initially require System 2 attention, can be turned into second nature, technical expertise intuitions I.e learning and training MATTERS in our ability to detect and respond to events that if untrained might take advantage of our brain s inherent blind spots or weaknesses Perhaps childhood religious indoctrination is a very adept recognition of these mental tendencies flaws, so profoundly if intuitively naively expressed by Ignatius Loyola, founder of the Jesuit order, Give me the boy until 7, I will give you the man paraphrased forgive me Kahneman s discoveries and documentation of mental capacity and biases could form the basis of a Mental Martial Arts program an alternative form of indoctrination, in which students are trained to understand their brains weaknesses, and learn to take stances or engage in practices that eliminate or reduce the errors to which these weaknesses can lead This book will rearrange the way you think about how you think An unrelentingly tedious book that can be summed up as follows We are irrationally prone to jump to conclusions based on rule of thumb shortcuts to actual reasoning, and in reliance on bad evidence, even though we have the capacity to think our way to better conclusions But we re lazy, so we don t We don t understand statistics, and if we did, we d becautious in our judgments, and less prone to think highly of our own skill at judging probabilities and outcomes Life not only is uncerta An unrelentingly tedious book that can be summed up as follows We are irrationally prone to jump to conclusions based on rule of thumb shortcuts to actual reasoning, and in reliance on bad evidence, even though we have the capacity to think our way to better conclusions But we re lazy, so we don t We don t understand statistics, and if we did, we d becautious in our judgments, and less prone to think highly of our own skill at judging probabilities and outcomes Life not only is uncertain, we cannot understand it systemically, and luck has just as much to do with what happens to us maybe eventhan we care to admit When in doubt, rely on an algorithm, because it saccurate than your best guess or some expert s opinion Above all, determine the baseline before you come to any decisions If you like endless and I mean endless algebraic word problems and circuitous anecdotes about everything from the author s dead friend Amos to his stint with the Israeli Air Defense Force, if you like slow paced, rambling explanations that rarely summarize a conclusion, if your idea of a hot date is to talk Bayesian theory with a clinical psychologist or an economist, then this book is for you, who are likely a highly specialized academically inclined person Perhaps you are even a blast at parties, I don t know But if you re like me and you prefer authors to cut to the chase, make their point, and then leave you with a whopping big appendix if you re interested in the regression analysis of how many freshmen would watch a guy choke to death because they think someone else will come to the rescue, then this book is not for you.If you want to take the Reader s Digest pass through the book, then Chapter 1 and Section 3 are probably the most accessible and can be read in less than an hour, and still leave you with a fair understanding of the author s thesis This is a fascinating book Reading this book means not having to read so many others For example, you could avoid having to read, Sway, Blink, Nudge and probably a dozen or so other books on Behavioural Economics And the best part of it is that this is the guy or, at least one half of the two guys who came up with these ideas in the first place I was thinking that perhaps the best way to explain those other books would be to compare them to Monty Python I want you to imagine something s This is a fascinating book Reading this book means not having to read so many others For example, you could avoid having to read, Sway, Blink, Nudge and probably a dozen or so other books on Behavioural Economics And the best part of it is that this is the guy or, at least one half of the two guys who came up with these ideas in the first place I was thinking that perhaps the best way to explain those other books would be to compare them to Monty Python I want you to imagine something say you had spent your entire life and never actually seen an episode of Monty Python s Flying Circus That wouldn t mean you wouldn t know anything about Monty Python It is impossible to have lived at any time since the late 60s and not have had some socially dysfunctional male reprise the entire Parrot sketch or Spanish Inquisition sketch at you at some stage in your life I suspect, although there is no way to prove this now, obviously, that Osama bin Laden could do the Silly Walk like a natural Well, if you had never seen an episode of Monty Python and your entire experience of their work was via the interpretation of men of a certain age down the pub then finally getting to see an episode of the original would be much the same effect as reading this book Hundreds of people have already told all this guy s best stories in their own books but all the same it is a pleasure to hear them again by the guy that first said, this parrot is dead or rather, framing effects make fools of us all.You need to read this book but what is particularly good about it is that you come away from it knowing we really are remarkably easy to fool It s because we think we know stuff that this comes as a constant surprise to us Years ago I was talking to a guy who liked to bet Everyone needs a hobby and that was his Anyway, he told me he was playing two up an Australian betting game and he realised something like tails hadn t come up frequently enough and so he started betting on tails and sure enough he made money I told him that coins don t remember the last throw and so the odds of getting a tail was still 50%, as it had previously been But I had no credibility I d already told him I never bet so, how would I possibly know anything if I wasn t even brave enough to put my own money on the outcome And didn t I understand the point of this story was he had already WON Still, when faced with a series of coin flips that run H, H, H, H, H, T, H, H, H it does feel like tails are due This is the sort of mistake we are all too prone to make The thing to remember is that while there is a law of large numbers toss a coin often enough and in the very long run there will be as many heads turn up as tails that isn t the case in the short run where just about anything is possible.We that is, we humans are remarkably bad at mental statistics And what makes it worse is that we are predictably bad at statistics And this brings me to Bourdieu and him saying that Sociology is kind of martial art He means that Sociology allows you to defend yourself from those who would manipulate you Well, this book is the Bruce Lee book of advanced self defence Learning just how we fool ourselves might not make you feel terribly great about what it means to be human but at least you will know why you hav stuffed up next time you do stuff up I m not sure it will stop you stuffing up but that would be asking for an awful lot from one book.If you want the short version of this book, he has provided the two papers that probably got him the Nobel Prize and they are remarkably clear, easy to understand and comprehensive But look, read this book it will do you good