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( Read Pdf ) Ë Надхитрени от случайността: Скритата роля на случайността в живота и на пазара ê ,The Tipping Point, This is the first book of INCERTO, the most polite, the simplest, and the best to start I feel like I should read the remaining four at least for now again, and I d love to.Nassim uses a great analogy, so simple that child can understand, and explain a quite complex problem with statistics He also makes some laugh at people that use statistics but can t understand it, this makes this book evenreadable The best part is there is no ghostwriter or editor, all the thoughts are said by th This is the first book of INCERTO, the most polite, the simplest, and the best to start I feel like I should read the remaining four at least for now again, and I d love to.Nassim uses a great analogy, so simple that child can understand, and explain a quite complex problem with statistics He also makes some laugh at people that use statistics but can t understand it, this makes this book evenreadable The best part is there is no ghostwriter or editor, all the thoughts are said by the author, and it makes this book quite unique in the non fiction genre Yeah, you see I ve just checked and most of the other reviews of this book do pretty much what I thought they would do They complain about the tone This guy is never going to win an award for modesty and he probably thinks you are stupid and have wasted your life And it gets worse like that quote from Oscar Wilde that has tormented me for years Work is the refuge of people who have nothing better to do , this guy reckons that if you work forthan an hour or so per day you are probab Yeah, you see I ve just checked and most of the other reviews of this book do pretty much what I thought they would do They complain about the tone This guy is never going to win an award for modesty and he probably thinks you are stupid and have wasted your life And it gets worse like that quote from Oscar Wilde that has tormented me for years Work is the refuge of people who have nothing better to do , this guy reckons that if you work forthan an hour or so per day you are probably too stupid to know or deserve any better.Do you hate him yet I didn t I found him very amusing Admittedly, I probably wouldn t want to be stuck beside him on a long flight somewhere but I don t really go on long flights anywhere, so it doesn t make too much sense using that as a criterion for anything.Let s make a proper start I m going to tell you something about Heraclitus Probably best known for some pithy little quotes about change that he made up all by himself a very long time ago You can never stand in the same river twice All is flux Heraclitus s vision of the world was that what is important is change, everything else is transitory and impermanent Bertrand Russell claims that Heraclitus came from an aristocratic family that ended up dashed agains the rocks of change and not nearly so well off The other thing you might need to know about Heraclitus was that he was known as The Obscure.I was reminded constantly of Heraclitus while reading this book The author was also from a well off family that lost everything in the Lebanese War This also made him focus on change and the nature of unpredictable events Hardly surprising then that Popper is his favourite philosopher there is no ultimate truth, rationality isor less prejudice, everything is awaiting falsification.I have a love hate relationship with Karl Popper I can never work out if he is incredibly na ve as Taleb proudly boasts that he is or if he is terribly profound I do like his idea that we should constantly seek to prove our most beloved theories wrong but I also think that this level of scepticism is somewhat overstated There is a line in this book in which we are informed well, twice actually that Newton was proven wrong by Einstein Oh, was he just I guess all those people shot through the head by guns aimed after the careful application of Newton s laws of motion suddenly came back to life again then did they I guess Neil Armstrong, who got to the moon on Newtonian physics, not on the front seat of one of Einstein s light rays, might also have been a bit surprised at this remarkable over throw.Okay, I know, I m nitpicking, but then again, Taleb does ask for it He is so contemptuous of the ignorance and foolishness of others that it does become a bit of a sport for him The one thing you can say about Taleb is that he is not like Heraclitus when it comes to being obscure He is always very clear, very comprehensive and very interesting.We should now do some of the people he particularly hates And in the first rank of those he hates are probably Journalists Now, it is hard not to agree with him there He sees Journalism as basically part of the entertainment industry and believes they only really go wrong when they start to think they serve some purpose beyond entertainment Then there are business people, who he believes are mostly thick One of the main contentions of his book is that successful people are often successful by pure chance As such their abiding emotion should be gratitude However, as he repeatedly points out, we all tend to believe our successes are proof of our own genius, and that it is only our failings that are the result of bad luck and chance.This book gives a wonderful introduction to many of the fallacies we humans are all too prone to make He makes a cogent argument that we can never be purely rational because we need our emotions to short circuit the endless decision loop that each purely rational decision would involve This book is also a great introduction to probability theory without too many numbers to the theory without the calculus Some of his verbal explanations of mistakes are remarkably clear so clear they virtually jump from the page.One of the constant themes that I found particularly interesting was that we all suffer from hindsight bias This is something I will definitely be taking from this book The idea is that because what has happened in the past has happened we think it is the only thing that could have happened and then use it to predict what will happen in the future We forget that events in the past were also the culmination of probabilistic situations that have resolved one way and not another We forget that these events could just as easily have resolved in another equally probable outcome one that merely did not occur The range of fallacies that he shows spring from this one bias is quite remarkable.Now, I was recommended this book by someone called Yuri and the funniest story in the book also starred someone called Yuri It is when he is discussing Stock Market people applying for jobs with him One of the things they tend to put on their CVs is that they play chess They do this because playing chess means they are both analytical and strategic These are obviously good things to be in fact, I think I would like to be both of these things Since you can be both of these things just by declaring yourself to be them, we shall take it as read from now on that I am both of these Taleb tends to prefer to associate with Russian Physicists, not just because they think like him, but also because they can give him lessons in chess and teach him to play piano When one of these new stock market trader types applies for a job and says that they play chess Taleb brings this up and then says, And this is Yuri who will now continue the interview And here Yuri appears with a chess board in front of him I once watched a Russian playing a non Russian at chess The Russian spent the entire time laughing his head off after every move I don t know if it was because the moves made by his opponent were so useless that he truly found them funny or because this was all part of the psychological warfare but he did slaughter his non Russian opponent, so perhaps a bit of both.This is another book inspired by behavioural economics like Freakonomics and Predictably Irrational I m becoming a bit of a fan of behavioural economics.If you take this book in good humour, if you allow yourself to listen and not get worked up about his inappropriate tone god save us from those who complain about inappropriate tone you will learn something from this book and maybe even have a good time.And I can do a two word review of this book Shit Happens Renowned statistician George Box once said, All models are wrong, but some are useful The author of Fooled by Randomness is all over the first part of this statement, but apparently doesn t consider it part of his job as an iconoclast to say anything about the second Taleb goes to great lengths to point out how some of the original assumptions made in investments and finance have blown up in people s faces Yes, unusual events do happenoften than a normal distribution suggests Yes, re Renowned statistician George Box once said, All models are wrong, but some are useful The author of Fooled by Randomness is all over the first part of this statement, but apparently doesn t consider it part of his job as an iconoclast to say anything about the second Taleb goes to great lengths to point out how some of the original assumptions made in investments and finance have blown up in people s faces Yes, unusual events do happenoften than a normal distribution suggests Yes, relationships among securities can change in meltdown scenarios And yes, people are regularly fooled into thinking luck is skill However, some market participants are clear sighted enough to see those shrouded risks for what they are and make better assumptions about how they should be traded off against expected returns Theseenlightened investors don t get the print, though, since they re not the straw men Taleb can knock down.Don t get me wrong We all like debunking stodgy, established wisdom when we see the holes If you re like Taleb, though, and see only holes, what you re left with is nothing What might there be in its place Some models, when tweaked, are still useful.In a brief moment of modesty, Taleb confesses to psychological weaknesses that can lead him to mistake noise for signal He seems rather smug about it all, though It s like he figures his ability to recognize himself as a fool puts him on a higher plane For the most part, his ego is openly displayed It s also coupled with an axe to grind an aggressive combination His fund has consistently underperformed though he would counter that he s positioned just right for the coming holocaust His investment strategy boils down to buying lots and lots of insurance contracts against rare occurrences that he thinks will be slightly less rare In actuality, he buys stock options, but the insurance metaphor illustrates the point The problem is he s so firm in his belief that the insurance companies have underestimated risks that he thinks all premiums are too low However, those selling options, armed with models that account for rare events appropriately, will chargethan enough to cover those risks.Who will be fortune s fool Time will tell, but a provocateur like Taleb will in all probability be better known for his quasi epistemological exposition on unanticipated variability than for any true investment success The modern world regards business cycles much as the ancient Egyptians regarded the overflowing of the Nile The phenomenon recurs at intervals, it is of great importance to everyone, and natural causes of it are not in sight John Bates Clark, 1898 Yeah, right Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2001